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So about those 3 rookies (Kaminsky, Winslow & Booker)


A recent thread was devoted to Winslow vs Frank vs Booker and I finally took a proper look at picks #9, #10, and #13. Personally, I think all 3 teams 14 lottery teams did well for themselves. Every 2015 lottery selection has played 1200+ minutes except 1 (fittingly pick #14 Cameron Payne), with 5 of them on likely playoff teams (ie Frank 1600+ minutes). By comparison, only 7 players from the 2014 lottery cracked 800 minutes and none for a .500 club.

Anyways, most of the offensive play types on NBA.com are included in the 2 charts below plus a few basic advanced stats from the Player Page. I’ve also added several slightly more advanced stats from Nylon Calculus. My notes are below the charts.

Chart # 1 simply ranks the 3 players within each category - Green (best), Yellow (2nd), Red (3rd). The play types start with offense on top and are loosely ordered top-to-bottom by skill difficulty and importance (ie PnR on top, Cutting and Putbacks much lower). The stats near the bottom are passing, defense, and rebounding.

* I filtered stats from NBA.com starting 1/01/2016 instead of October when Frank/Booker were getting less consistent minutes.
* SportVU Play Types cannot be filtered other than full season. Stats expressed in Points Per Play (PnR PPP, Cutting PPP, etc..) are for every game since October.
* The Contested Dreb% and Rim protection metrics from Nylon Calculus should provide a reasonable estimate of current performance but they haven’t been updated since before the All-Star Break.


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http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/



Chart # 2 - in this chart Booker, Kaminsky, and Winslow are not compared to each other but instead to their peers, rookies though Tim Duncan. I converted the player’s personal stats into a percentile ranking relative to all qualified NBA players for that category (the column for # of qualifying players is to the right).

Deep Red = No Bueno.

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Booker has advanced ball skills for a rookie (top = green) and not just shooting. His proficiency in running PnR is surprisingly good, as are other categories requiring putting the ball on the floor and/or making decisions. His TOV rate is higher with a low passing TS% but I’d take that in context for a high usage rookie on a depleted roster. He’s already above NBA median efficiency in 5+ offensive categories (PnR, ISO’s + Post Ups, Drives, Transition, Cutting, C&S). It’s not all roses though - he’s making hay against second units or 1st units in less than intense games. He struggles in categories requiring physicality on defense or the glass where bigger/stronger players excel. He has a slight frame so time will tell how much he can improve. Overall though Booker is punching above the #13.

Winslow is weaker than Booker/Frank in every offensive category and a flaming dumpster fire in ball skills. Moving down the column he's less flaming (defense, rebounding, running around) but to his credit he’s an outstanding defensive rebounder for his position. From a skills perspective Winslow is the polar opposite of Booker/Frank. Learning how to shoot only scratches the surface for Winslow - he’s literally one of the NBA’s 5-10 least proficient rotation players in multiple offensive categories and several others with insufficient volume to qualify. The narrative on Winslow would be a lot different if he wasn’t getting 24% of his points in transition.

Frank - draw your own conclusions about Frank. Teasing out guards and wings would’ve made his offensive chart look even more promising with plenty of metrics (here or otherwise) supporting he's a + defender right now. I haven't compared him to other bigs but I doubt there are > 20 PF/C with as deep a skillset from nearly every spot on the floor. He'll need to adjust though as his usage rises in the future and teams gameplan.


  • 19 Comments

    awesome work.

     

    the main objection to any frank observation would be age and potential. personally, i think it is bunk but that is me.

    After I finished the 2 charts I started a 3rd comparing qualified rookies/sophomores before giving up because the results were predictable. FK's and DB's abilities (not just promise) in multiple disparate categories isn't.....normal. Booker was stereotyped as a shooter but has demonstrated combo skills. Frank was stereotyped as limited but is now winning individual matchups on both ends w/demonstrated guards/wing abilities. Back in November goofy Frank couldn't finish his floaters/drives but is now top quartile in efficiency (all positions) on uncommon volume for a big.

     

    In order by drive volume: Boogie, Vucevic, Frank, Lopez, Gasol, KAT, Okafor, Horford, Anthony Davis. That's the list

     

    http://stats.nba.com...20|DRIVES*GE*50

     

    Also notable for all 3 players is intelligence + work. You can tell each will figure it out in their own way. I think Frank's potential will be unlocking the entire skillset to be > individual skills, ala Nic or CB-lite+

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    QC Thundercats
    Apr 08 2016 11:41 AM
    Interesting comparison, especially since these were the 3 we were most likely to pick at 9. Before the draft, I at first thought any notion of Booker at 9 was crazy, but going through the draft process, I was convinced he would be a great pick for us. And he'd probably fit in perfectly right now as another big guard in the stable who could shoot and create plays.

    Although if we had taken Booker over Winslow, would the outcry have been just as bad? And he definitely wouldn't be putting up the same numbers as a backup as he is in Phoenix.

    I haven't watched the Heat much outside when they play the Hornets, but is it more Winslow is just playing his role, or is he just living off his physical gifts and is still learning the nuances of the game? I know there is more a hierarchy system there, with wade and bosh (when healthy) as alphas, Dragic as the big money guy, and deng and amare (and now Joe) as veterans who deserve touches, so maybe he's trying not to step on toes at this point.

    Also, a lot of people were trying to compare winslow to MKG, have you taken a look at their rookie years yet? I've always thought MKG had pretty good instincts on offense, it was just he got so afraid to shoot while his jumper was under construction, so it may skew some stats. But were their defensive numbers in the same plane their rookie years?

    And buckets, as a Frank follower from way back, what do you think is the biggest thing he should concentrate on this offseason, or what would unlock his game to be able to let him take the next step?

    For the record here's the incomplete rookie/sophomore chart which includes ~ 25 to 45 qualified players depending on category. I also threw in 3P% which paradoxically gives DB/FK/JW closer equivalency without accounting for quality/skill (play type) which was the entire purpose of the exercise.

     

    For ease I added DReb% instead of the more accurate DReb win%. Dreb% actually short changes JW, and to a lesser degree FK, because it includes peer freebie rebounds (FT's) and ignores if it was contested or not. Neither player is a rebound chaser.

     

    cKgGY.jpg

    Although if we had taken Booker over Winslow, would the outcry have been just as bad? And he definitely wouldn't be putting up the same numbers as a backup as he is in Phoenix.
     

     

    This is a good point. Before January Booker was getting DNP-CD and games < 10 minutes. By circumstance he gained experience - given his rebounding/defensive weakness I doubt that happens in CHA. It also begs the question would Miami have picked Frank (or Detroit which I'm sure of now)? It's unknowable and unimportant but FK has exactly what that team needs now that Josh Richardson has emerged soaking up minutes.

     

    I haven't watched the Heat much outside when they play the Hornets, but is it more Winslow is just playing his role, or is he just living off his physical gifts and is still learning the nuances of the game? I know there is more a hierarchy system there, with wade and bosh (when healthy) as alphas, Dragic as the big money guy, and deng and amare (and now Joe) as veterans who deserve touches, so maybe he's trying not to step on toes at this point.
     

     

    I've watched 30+ Heat games and like Winslow for what he can do now - transition, defense, and the glass. Spo is trying baby steps to involve JW as an initiator from lack of skills between the initial pass and finishing. He's smart though and eats huge minutes for a veteran team without depth. The presence of Wade/Johnson/Dragic/Whiteside helps and hinders Winslow - their ability to create their own offense (sans HW) mitigates JW's shortcomings but there's also less space for him to cut. Some teams literally "guard" Winslow with a PF or C while he camps in the corners

     

    Also, a lot of people were trying to compare winslow to MKG, have you taken a look at their rookie years yet? I've always thought MKG had pretty good instincts on offense, it was just he got so afraid to shoot while his jumper was under construction, so it may skew some stats. But were their defensive numbers in the same plane their rookie years?
     

     

    I haven't looked at the numbers nor watched much of MKG his rookie year. Winslow has a more repeatable shooting motion on stationary attempts and defensively will be really really good. It's unfair though to expect MKG's level on D, which minimizes the fact defense is a skill (like offense) and MKG is other universe level.

     

    And buckets, as a Frank follower from way back, what do you think is the biggest thing he should concentrate on this offseason, or what would unlock his game to be able to let him take the next step?

     

    Continue strides in lower body power generation. Left-hand post and floaters.

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    Ashevillelin
    Apr 08 2016 03:03 PM

    Nice chart, and it makes a strong case for Frank. The case for Winslow would be that his contributions show up more in areas that can't be measured so well: team defense, defensive flexibility (recently he's been guarding 4s as well as wings), glue and so forth. To make the case, one could point to his minutes (third most on a playoff team as a 19 year old) combined with an on-off differential of +3.4!  Frank's is -5.8, which honestly isn't that bad for a rookie on a good team.  And I know that context has to be considered, but the context probably favors Winslow: Both players were mostly coming off the bench but Frank was on the team with better depth. Were both players to be dangled on the trade market this summer, I'd be surprised if Winslow wasn't more sought after.

     

    For comparison, MKG's on-off differential was +4.9 his first season. One could certainly argue, however, that it's harder to make a positive impact on a good team like Miami's this season than a bad team like Charlotte's in 2012-13 (MKG's on net rating that year was -8.2). Not that I'd argue that Winslow's defense is now, or will ever be, quite at MKG's level. But it's still very good. And for the record, let me explain how highly I regard MKG: If healthy, I still consider him our best player, despite an all-star level season from Kemba (and an excellent one from Batum as well). So it's no big knock on Winslow to say he's not quite at MKG's level.

    Nice chart, and it makes a strong case for Frank. The case for Winslow would be that his contributions show up more in areas that can't be measured so well: team defense, defensive flexibility (recently he's been guarding 4s as well as wings), glue and so forth. To make the case, one could point to his minutes (third most on a playoff team as a 19 year old) combined with an on-off differential of +3.4!  Were both players to be dangled on the trade market this summer, I'd be surprised if Winslow wasn't more sought after.

     

    One could look at it several ways depending on the question. The purpose of my exercise was to address the initial discussion about player X vs Y vs Z for draft and developmental purposes. For that reason, demonstrated NBA skills over 75 NBA games with a propensity to improve matters. For example, we now know Booker isn't just a shooter because he's shown otherwise. Same for Frank's perceived weakness (a couple accurate, most lol), notably his uncommon skill and defensive mobility for a 7 footer. 

     

    JW may have a brighter future but the case for Winslow is nearly unchanged from June of 2015. If anything he's solidified what we (thought) knew, both good and bad. And citing team +/-  to bolster a rookie w/flawed skills cuts both ways...as in by definition since January Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson are the better prospects. Or more accurately a combination of Winslow, teammates, coach, and roster construction.

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    Ashevillelin
    Apr 08 2016 05:21 PM

    One could look at it several ways depending on the question. The purpose of my exercise was to address the initial discussion about player X vs Y vs Z for draft and developmental purposes. For that reason, demonstrated NBA skills over 75 NBA games with a propensity to improve matters. For example, we now know Booker isn't just a shooter because he's shown otherwise. Same for Frank's perceived weakness (a couple accurate, most lol), notably his uncommon skill and defensive mobility for a 7 footer. 

     

    JW may have a brighter future but the case for Winslow is nearly unchanged from June of 2015. If anything he's solidified what we (thought) knew, both good and bad. And citing team +/-  to bolster a rookie w/flawed skills cuts both ways...as in by definition since January Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson are the better prospects. Or more accurately a combination of Winslow, teammates, coach, and roster construction.

     

    The lineups with Frank in them aren't as impressive as the individual numbers you put on the chart. For instance, the TS% and assist ratios of his lineups are low relative to the team's. I think that partly explains why his +/- isn't so strong. But those low numbers are surprising since he's such a versatile offensive player. I think it will just require more time to integrate his strengths into the offense as he gains experience and his teammates gain experience playing with him: eventually his offensive talents will be helping his teammates more than they have this season. I'd be surprised if we didn't see a big jump in those figures next year.

    The lineups with Frank in them aren't as impressive as the individual numbers you put on the chart. For instance, the TS% and assist ratios of his lineups are low relative to the team's. I think that partly explains why his +/- isn't so strong. But those low numbers are surprising since he's such a versatile offensive player. I think it will just require more time to integrate his strengths into the offense as he gains experience and his teammates gain experience playing with him: eventually his offensive talents will be helping his teammates more than they have this season. I'd be surprised if we didn't see a big jump in those figures next year.

     

    I think you need to consider the how/why of a metric like +/-. It's a good starting point but +/- is literally a comp to the alternative. Frank=PF and Marvin=PF on a team plagued by injuries. Except 1 position....power forward (and Marvin has been awesome). After Al's December injury Marvin/Frank were cemented on different units almost exclusively as PF's "competing" for 50+ games without Frank enjoying the Marvin +/- tailwind.

     

    Plus Frank was the only bench constant  in a revolving door of bench > starters > injuries > bench while Marvin's posse reloaded with Frank's bench ammo. Lin swung to SG to enjoy Marvin/Nic/Kemba's tailwind...Cody moved there permanently in December...even Spencer for stretch. FK didn't even get the MKG power boost, and rarely Courtney now.

    And let's be honest - no coach would ever construct a unit with Al, Lin, Lamb, and Frank by choice. But what's best for the individual(s) isn't the primary objective.

    Last 4 games 2nd rounder Josh Richardson leads the Heat in minutes, 3PA, 3PT%, and +/-. Future All-Star or 'Spo being 'Spo?
    List of gm's since 2002-03 with 48 wins and a drafted lottery pick getting 1600 minutes:

    #Chowouldbethelist

    Last 4 games 2nd rounder Josh Richardson leads the Heat in minutes, 3PA, 3PT%, and +/-. Future All-Star or 'Spo being 'Spo?


    What negatives did Richardson supposedly have going into the draft last year that caused him to fall so far?

    He can play.

    What negatives did Richardson supposedly have going into the draft last year that caused him to fall so far?
    He can play.


    Ironically developing consist shooting and ball skills as a 4 year college player. He's been lights out for months but I think he's due for a significant reversion when teams adjust in the playoffs.
    Miami always seems to find diamonds in the rough and reclamation projects...Richardson, Terrell Harris, Tyler Johnson, James Ennis, Henry Walker, Greg Oden, Joel Anthony.

    I have a lot of respect for Riley's high expectations and Spoelstra as a coach. Really the only time Lebron fell in line was w/Spo.
    Speaking of which...

    )

    The fine print:

     

    Green = Olympian, NBA Champion, All-Star, All-NBA (current, former, presumptive)

     

    Red = deep bench, injured, traded, tried choking a teammate

     

    minutes together since 12/1(nbawowy)

    uMqpO.jpg

    BTW the above isn't about overall team quality just how +/- can be deceiving. I'd roll with Charlotte's 8 over almost anyone, take Kemba over Dragic, Batum over Wade, etc...

     

    Most rookies get heavy garbage run to save the legs of vets. In the case of Kaminsky and Booker it's more pronounced - FK against 2nd units with deeper bench players in addition to garbage time, Booker on 1st/2nd units on a weaker team decimated by injury and a coach firing.

     

    Miami needed the opposite out of their rookies (Winslow + Richardson) - heavy wing rotation run from young legs eating minutes w/their vets. Proportionally speaking, roster construction meant Winslow almost always shared the floor w/ NBA 1-7's and very little time with a deep bench.

    Kaminsky TS% when playing in groups w/Charlotte's top 9 - Kemba, Lin, Courtney, Nic, MKG, Marvin, Kaminsky, Cody, Al.

     

    Season - 56.2%

     

    January 1 - 56.6%

     

    All-Star - 59.0%

     

    Last Month - 62.0%