Could Joel Embiid fall to the Charlotte Hornets at #9?

1. Parker

2. Wiggins

3. Exum

4. Smart

5. Vonleh

6. Gordon

7. Randle

8. McBuckets

9. ?

Everyone moves down a spot.

If he was there at #9, yes I take him.   Broken  

http://www.footeduca...stress-fracture

He's not falling to 9. The farthest I could see him possibly falling, and even this is me being a little bit of a wishful homer, is 6. 

Not going to be there at 9, but if, for the sake of discussion, he did fall that far, Cho would be monolithically stupid to not pick him.

If the Orthos for the team review the meds and feel he should heal OK, then yes I take him at #9.  But if they tell me No, then I follow their orders.

I can't see LA and Boston passing on him, but crazier things have happened.

Currently DraftExpress and Chad Ford's mock have him going to Orlando at #4

Not going to be there at 9, but if, for the sake of discussion, he did fall that far, Cho would be monolithically stupid to not pick him.

i agree with you on this one

not me....

Here is what someone on real gm wrote 

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There is no reason to draft him in the top five. Before, he was just a little injury prone, but now he is arguably more injury-prone than Bowie or Oden were heading into the draft. 3 injuries in 28 games, playing < 25 MPG. There isn't a single reason to suspect he has the capability of playing 82 games on 30+ MPG. Not one.

This isn't even a Noel-type situation. Noel was concerned a relatively limited project (no offense, athletic defender), who would likely need the majority of the season to rehab. But ACL tears are not career ending injuries anymore, especially at such a young age for a first time injury.

Embiid has multiple stress fractures, which are usually recurring. And remember, he played less college minutes than Noel, Bowie, Oden, or virtually another center with the injury flag. His ability to play while healthy is unquestioned, but this isn't a question of "will he have to sit for a while to recover," but instead "will he ever be a healthy starter?"

And right now, the controversial answer is yes, not no. There is no reason to think he'll ever be healthy, but at least 3 big reasons to suspect he'll stay injured for the rest of his career. I loved him as a prospect, but realistically speaking he shouldn't go in the top five and probably not in the top ten. At a minimum, he falls to the Celtics.

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and then later the same poster

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I tend to agree about his prospects of every being a healthy player.  He can't make it through a college season without having a sprained knee, a back thing and a stress fracture in his foot.  That isn't some freak injuries, that is a pattern, and two out of three of those are potential career enders.  Why do people think he can add weight needed to play the 5 in the NBA and make it through an 82 game season. 

Even if you get him healthy, every night you are just waiting for the other shoe to drop. 

not me....

 

Here is what someone on real gm wrote 

..........................................................................................................................................................................................................

There is no reason to draft him in the top five. Before, he was just a little injury prone, but now he is arguably more injury-prone than Bowie or Oden were heading into the draft. 3 injuries in 28 games, playing < 25 MPG. There isn't a single reason to suspect he has the capability of playing 82 games on 30+ MPG. Not one.

This isn't even a Noel-type situation. Noel was concerned a relatively limited project (no offense, athletic defender), who would likely need the majority of the season to rehab. But ACL tears are not career ending injuries anymore, especially at such a young age for a first time injury.

Embiid has multiple stress fractures, which are usually recurring. And remember, he played less college minutes than Noel, Bowie, Oden, or virtually another center with the injury flag. His ability to play while healthy is unquestioned, but this isn't a question of "will he have to sit for a while to recover," but instead "will he ever be a healthy starter?"

And right now, the controversial answer is yes, not no. There is no reason to think he'll ever be healthy, but at least 3 big reasons to suspect he'll stay injured for the rest of his career. I loved him as a prospect, but realistically speaking he shouldn't go in the top five and probably not in the top ten. At a minimum, he falls to the Celtics.

 

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and then later the same poster

 

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After thinking about it a little more, I think you can split the different rankings into groups:

Cleveland, Milwaukee: Absolutely not drafting him. Parker and Wiggins going #1 and #2.
Philadelphia, Orlando, Utah: Can't afford the risk, they need to build through the draft

So I highly doubt he goes in the top five, and 99.99% sure he's not going in the top two. The next group:

Boston, LA Lakers: Can afford the risk, but still might hesitate

Boston and LA are big markets that can rebuild through FA, so they might be more willing to take a gamble on a prospect. However, both teams know what striking out can mean. Boston remembers the slump after losing Len Bias, and the Lakers have been hurt by injured centers in recent history. They'll take a look at his medical report to decide if the risk is worth it, and there is a decent chance they pass him up.

Sacremento, Charlotte: If Embiid's medical report is bad enough to get by the Lakers and Celtics, neither of these teams will draft him; he doesn't fit their needs and they need to hit their draft picks

So best case scenario, he goes #3 to Philadelphia (assuming they don't trade, which is getting more likely). This is the least likely of the three. If he doesn't go to Philadelphia, his next shot would be the Celtics at #6. This is probably the mostly likely target. Finally, if the Celtics avoid him he'll fall to Philadelphia at #10, who would be fine taking the risk with their top spot filled out.

Going from #1 to #10 seems drastic, but I think it'll become more and more likely as we approach the draft. However, there is a good chance Philadelphia would trade up to get Wiggins at #1 and Cleveland would be in this spot to get Embiid.

 

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I tend to agree about his prospects of every being a healthy player.  He can't make it through a college season without having a sprained knee, a back thing and a stress fracture in his foot.  That isn't some freak injuries, that is a pattern, and two out of three of those are potential career enders.  Why do people think he can add weight needed to play the 5 in the NBA and make it through an 82 game season. 

 

Even if you get him healthy, every night you are just waiting for the other shoe to drop. 

given what the link i posted above says and his back injuries, I am in agreement with this guy. however, i feel like charlotte could be a likely landing spot as they could afford to take him and sit him, sign a very decent free agent small forward like deng and package #24 and #45 to move up to take PJ.

I think you have to take him, the pick is basically a Wild Card anyway and if it works out we are set past Big Al's time here and if it doesn't oh well it would not be our first bust.

http://larrybrownspo...l-walton/233216

Fortunately for Embiid, there are some cases where players fractured their navicular bone that don’t end with a horror story. Zydrunas Ilgauskas dealt with it when he was younger but still averaged 73 games per season over the final 10 years of his career. Dr. Kenneth Hunt, an Assistant Professor of Orthopedics at Stanford, told Mannix that the key is addressing the injury quickly.

“The majority of these injuries will heal completely,” Hunt said. “Getting to it early is a good prognostic sign. In his case, it appears it was treated early and appropriately. In the cases I have seen, the athletes that have recurrent fractures have high arches and stiff feet. They can develop large spurs in the adjacent bones. But again, to the majority of athletes this will heal and not be an issue in the future.”

 

I wouldn't.  The past examples of Yao & Walton scare me off too much.

If he falls I don't see him making past the Lakers. 

Hopefully the Lakers still want Randle.

Yeah, I take him.  Yao, Ilkauskas and Lopez are/were lumbering guys with the first two being 7'3" or more.  Embiid is a lot more agile in his 6'11"-7' frame and I don't see why it wouldn't be worth the risk.  Chronic stress fractures is a possibility but when bones heal they're stronger than before.  For me the issue is whether or not his diet is up to snuff.  If he eats like a typical college kid he might not be getting the proper nutrition.  

I was adamantly against picking Len last year b/c unlike Embiid Len's bones were breaking down while he needed to bulk up, not a good combination.  Embiid's at a good size already and he doesn't run anywhere nearly as awkwardly as Len does (Len runs like a cow).  If Embiid heals up properly and gets his nutrition straightened away then it's at least a 50% chance he doesn't have this problem for a long time.  He's worth a 50% dice roll to me.

it's a pipe dream to even contemplate it.

Anyone who says no is lying.