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Hornets at Heat - The Big Payback

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#41 Adam42R Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:19 PM

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I am just convinced in general our coaching style puts guys in places to fail.  Why the damned hell - if we don't trust Monk to be next-guy-up PG in an absent MCW - don't we just put him out there as a fucking mannequin and use MKG to run the ball handling duties?  You cannot ride Kemba for near 40 minutes on a B2B and expect him to be worth shit the last 2 minutes of the game... kinda like when you need him the most.  And they - the Heat - INVENTED the blitz Kemba out high, so why the hell do we not have a strong bodied guy handle the ball and just run Kemba off ball down the stretch?  It would be even more effective too if Kemba didn't need an O2 bottle and 12 hours of sleep.  Good gracious you can see the end result coming like a storm in Oklahoma.  And what the hell plays were we even running down the last 6-7 minute anyway?  Could anyone tell what the plan was?


Here comes McRoberts, the throw to Walker, it's in the aaaaaiiiiirrrr, YESSSSS! Bobcats win it! My my my, Kemba Walker. Steve Martin - Toronto 12/18/2013
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#42 nowhere fast Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:21 PM

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Lamb being off is way too kind. He was atrocious in leading an offense

 

They put Winslow on Lamb and ganged up on Kemba.  After that we got nothing.


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#43 WIAN Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:24 PM

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See my plea to Batum as a response to that great rant. His inability to step up in that moment of the game truly pissed me off. He was lauded as that guy to take the heat off Kemba initiating the offense.
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#44 cltblkhscoach Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:30 PM

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The play that they drew up in the timeout where Marvin missed the corner 3 - that defeated the blitz, but Adam you are right - you would think that would be in the gameplan knowing thats what they do to Kemba.

The substitution pattern on the 2nd night of a back to back really did them no favors. It was like he played this as a playoff game, but it really makes no sense to me.

Lamb and Bacon played in the rotation earlier this year out of necessity and more than held their own for the 10 minutes they got. What in the world has happened for them to suddenly have zero trust and excuses be trotted out each time someone asks about them?

Allan Bristow Is The GOAT

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#45 Adam42R Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:30 PM

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See my plea to Batum as a response to that great rant. His inability to step up in that moment of the game truly pissed me off. He was lauded as that guy to take the heat off Kemba initiating the offense.

 

But this is my issue.  It's not a Batum issue if he's constantly placed in situations he's not good at.  It's like putting Dwight in at end of game for rebounds without the acknowledgement you cannot inbound to him because he's a FT liability.  Just like putting Frank in with 4.6 secs left to inbound the ball when he's 15 minutes cold and not the guy we typically use to inbound when Nic is in the game .... which kind of makes sense because we know Nic doesn't want to take that grenade shot.  So it's exactly why I have an issue with folks that want to get mad at Nic; it's like being pissed at the square 3pt miss by MCW last night.  In that case, we inexplicably ran a play to get MCW an open 3.  WHY?  Like WTF Why?  That's putting guys in just shitty situations.  Maybe I have gone so completely sour on the staff that I am excusing gameplay for gameplan but right now, and like since the second game back for Cliff, I have seen this as a major concern.


Here comes McRoberts, the throw to Walker, it's in the aaaaaiiiiirrrr, YESSSSS! Bobcats win it! My my my, Kemba Walker. Steve Martin - Toronto 12/18/2013
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#46 cltblkhscoach Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:33 PM

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Allan Bristow Is The GOAT

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#47 jfoster Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:35 PM

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Wow. Via the internet, I send all of you a Jameson I'm drinking right now. Fuck man.


Make it a double!
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#48 buckets Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:37 PM

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There has to be some stat out there that tracks the % of time a player scores on an opponent while guarded. Frank has to be #1 defender on our team in that aspect. He has very little affect on the person he is defending.

 

Not sure I'd draw definitive conclusions based on defended FG%. BUT if that's the hypothesis and you're willing to accept data confirming the hypothesis, then you should also be willing to accept it when data rejects the hypothesis. And for what it's worth live ball offensive turnovers, failed drive attempts by guards, and foul differentials impact DefRtgs as much (or more) than the actual act of defending.

 

Measuring the PF spot is a bit tricky too because some teams hedge and recover, some switch, and some teams like CHA put enormous pressure on their PF by zoning their C. There's even a difference between the way CHA's PF defend depending on perimeter players in the game. IE Kaminsky hedges/recovers with Monk and last season with Marco and Sessions. This season the bench defends similar to the starters when MCW plays which is why you see Lamb on PF switches of late.

 

Also, distance 2's and 3P% defense are meaningless, essentially random stats.....there have been countless studies showing how defenses barely impact 3P%. Opponent 3PA rate per 100, however, is meaningful. As are Restricted Area FGA rates but that speaks to every player from the PG to rim protecting C.

 

 

http://stats.nba.com...amID=1610612766

 

http://stats.nba.com...=OPP_FG3A&dir=1


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#49 buckets Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:51 PM

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They lost the lead in the 2nd with him in there but I dont think it was his fault. Lamb was off, Frank was bad, and defensively Miami's bench executed well.

 

Monk struggles with the basics like few NBA players in recent memory.

 

Agree though on Frank and Lamb. And I'd add no MCW made it difficult. For all the nonsense he receives, that unit has been excellent with MCW since Silas started DNP'ing Monk. No MCW and Lamb/Frank missing shots was basically the perfect cocktail to keep the U5 point streak alive.


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#50 buckets Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:58 PM

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I kinda get Clifford playing Monk but jeez Monk + Lamb + JOB is just begging for stilted offensive production.


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#51 WIAN Posted 27 January 2018 - 10:58 PM

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Frank is rarely caught out of position on defense and I truly believe that's why Cliff trusts him so much. But what good is being in the right place if you don't affect the player you're defending?

Now Cliff is handcuffed here because aside from Marvin what are his options?? We are in one helluva mess.
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#52 GeraldWallaceMVP Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:06 PM

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we suck
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#53 WIAN Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:10 PM

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But this is my issue. It's not a Batum issue if he's constantly placed in situations he's not good at. It's like putting Dwight in at end of game for rebounds without the acknowledgement you cannot inbound to him because he's a FT liability. Just like putting Frank in with 4.6 secs left to inbound the ball when he's 15 minutes cold and not the guy we typically use to inbound when Nic is in the game .... which kind of makes sense because we know Nic doesn't want to take that grenade shot. So it's exactly why I have an issue with folks that want to get mad at Nic; it's like being pissed at the square 3pt miss by MCW last night. In that case, we inexplicably ran a play to get MCW an open 3. WHY? Like WTF Why? That's putting guys in just shitty situations. Maybe I have gone so completely sour on the staff that I am excusing gameplay for gameplan but right now, and like since the second game back for Cliff, I have seen this as a major concern.


I see Kemba have one pass and a shot possessions that I'm sure are not drawn up on the game plan. I see Dwight shoot pointless bank shots that are rarely successful. In other words apparently they have the authority to hijack the offense. Who is holding Nic back from initiating an offensive set? Especially when our PG can obviously use the off the ball rest let alone what Miami is doing to stop him.

Your point is not lost however bc there is a guy in charge that can expidite this request at anytime during these many many meltdowns.
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#54 buckets Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:10 PM

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Frank is rarely caught out of position on defense and I truly believe that's why Cliff trusts him so much. But what good is being in the right place if you don't affect the player you're defending?

Now Cliff is handcuffed here because aside from Marvin what are his options?? We are in one helluva mess.

 

So we're just gonna ignore the -2.4% inside 6ft? And to be clear I don't consider Frank a plus defender, nor minus defensively either. He's a mixed bag of solid team defense in connected lineups, few mistakes on both ends, and poor individual defense in lineups with weak perimeter defenders. 

 

Personally, I don't consider Marvin a plus defender either. He's stouter on the interior but his diminished lateral movement and shorter standing reach makes him slightly weaker than Frank in a few areas.


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#55 WIAN Posted 27 January 2018 - 11:15 PM

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So we're just gonna ignore the -2.4% inside 6ft? And to be clear I don't consider Frank a plus defender, nor minus defensively either. He's a mixed bag of solid team defense in connected lineups, few mistakes on both ends, and poor individual defense in lineups with weak perimeter defenders.

Personally, I don't consider Marvin a plus defender either. He's stouter on the interior but his diminished lateral movement and shorter standing reach makes him slightly weaker than Frank in a few areas.


I've seen too many teams attack him specifically to give it any credence. Marv is a 13 yr vet lack lateral quickness is expected. What's Frank's excuse?
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#56 buckets Posted 28 January 2018 - 12:09 AM

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I've seen too many teams attack him specifically to give it any credence. Marv is a 13 yr vet lack lateral quickness is expected. What's Frank's excuse?

 

But isn't that what you asked for, tracking data for DFG% differential? Come clean --- you'd be like "haha see" if the tracking data said otherwise. 

 

And excuse for what, specifically, other than not being gifted a desirable height-to-length ratio? Or for that matter, frequently playing in inexperienced 5-man bench groups rather than cocooned in lineups with MKG and Howard or previously with Cody and MKG.

 

Hornets *bench since December 17 (Monk started getting DNP's) is 3.1 points better defensively than the $84M starting group. During the same period the bench group is +7.1 overall compared to the starters who are +3.2. For comparison sake the Spurs #1 rated bench is +6.0 since 12/17.

 

With Howard + MKG (season)

Marvin = 802 minutes (66.7%)

Frank = 78 minutes (7.9%)

 

Without Howard + MKG

Marvin= 76 minutes (6.1%)

Frank= 591 minutes (59.8%)

 

*combinations of MCW, Lamb, Treveon, Frank, JOB, Nic, Kemba


#Chodidthemath
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#57 buckets Posted 28 January 2018 - 01:10 AM

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Kinda amazing cognitive dissonance. As if TheBench™ is set in stone and not impacted by fit, matchups, dollars invested, or coaching. And like last game Spoelstra's lineup decisions kicked Clifford's ass up and down the court.

 

A temperamental $23M center? Whatever coach 'Spo rolls with Bam over Whiteside.

 

Need a win? Cool, let's use a 9 or even an 8-man rotation. Meanwhile Clifford plugs players #11 and #12 into his 10-man rotation.

 

Need spacing? KO moves to C, Ellington gets 36 minutes, and Winslow doesn't play.

 

3 weeks ago Derrick Jones wasn't on an NBA roster. Last week he started against the Hornets. Today he was a DNP.


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#58 Mich_Mercer Posted 28 January 2018 - 01:41 AM

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It seems like we've watched this same game 100 times. You just know we are going to blow a lead. I don't get how this team can play so well and then just all of a sudden forget how to play. Can we please get a coach who can coach this team? I still feel that it's not the players. We have so much talent. It's so frustrating.
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#59 Adam42R Posted 28 January 2018 - 03:03 AM

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It seems like we've watched this same game 100 times. You just know we are going to blow a lead. I don't get how this team can play so well and then just all of a sudden forget how to play. Can we please get a coach who can coach this team? I still feel that it's not the players. We have so much talent. It's so frustrating.

 

It's funny but I had a different thought but think we are looking at different sides of the same wall.  We keep seeing other coaches do dynamic things to outwit the imperious forces of planet Cliffball*, while we see indeed the same 100 renditions of the same from our guys.  Someone said it earlier, here or in another thread, if we find it predictable, what does the scouting report say?  Great, great point.  So I don't think the players forget how to play or are really doing anything at all wrong - they just have the disadvantage of roughly 25 other teams in the NBA knowing what we are going to do and likely 20 of them able to do something about it.

 

* cannot sleep, imperious forces came to mind which I figured was a pretty apt comparison of our coaching and President Skroob**

** good Lord I have become sour as hell on how this team is being coached


Here comes McRoberts, the throw to Walker, it's in the aaaaaiiiiirrrr, YESSSSS! Bobcats win it! My my my, Kemba Walker. Steve Martin - Toronto 12/18/2013
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#60 Adam42R Posted 28 January 2018 - 03:25 AM

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But isn't that what you asked for, tracking data for DFG% differential? Come clean --- you'd be like "haha see" if the tracking data said otherwise. 

 

And excuse for what, specifically, other than not being gifted a desirable height-to-length ratio? Or for that matter, frequently playing in inexperienced 5-man bench groups rather than cocooned in lineups with MKG and Howard or previously with Cody and MKG.

 

Hornets *bench since December 17 (Monk started getting DNP's) is 3.1 points better defensively than the $84M starting group. During the same period the bench group is +7.1 overall compared to the starters who are +3.2. For comparison sake the Spurs #1 rated bench is +6.0 since 12/17.

 

With Howard + MKG (season)

Marvin = 802 minutes (66.7%)

Frank = 78 minutes (7.9%)

 

Without Howard + MKG

Marvin= 76 minutes (6.1%)

Frank= 591 minutes (59.8%)

 

*combinations of MCW, Lamb, Treveon, Frank, JOB, Nic, Kemba

 

This is actually very helpful to see.  I tend to think that Frank looks like he's in the right spots defensively.  The previous Heat meltdown, I am pretty sure FK was screened by his own player on both KO 3s to open the 4th.  I didn't think then it was Frank (though I defer to others if history proves that an incorrect memory) but since there's a narrative that he's not good on defense, that's the majority of the coach-in-waiting-callers to local AM radio.  Somehow, over time, that becomes truth and that then becomes a hurdle to overcome.  There's a lot to be said about playing your lane well and having to overcome bad play to do so. Like you said, that doesn't make him a plus defender, but it doesn't make him the minus defender he's labelled. 

 

To me, there are big advantages to playing FK down the stretch (pretty much the whole 4th) at the 5, with alternating MKG and Marvin at the 4 is what I would so love to see this team run.  It alleviates that concern above of having 4 on 3 defensive covers on any pressure inbound for us and it stretches the floor offensively.  Additionally, I have 100% confidence on Frank putting the ball on the floor on a full sprint if our game depends on it.  I know Dwight loves to do this himself but he's not fool enough to try that with game on the line and 30 seconds to go.  Not saying you need your PF/C to do this, just painting the remarkably stark delta between those guys and who you'd want on the court with 5 mins left in the 4th up or down a possession.  And unlike Nic, Frank doesn't seem to run from big moments, he'll put up the kill shot but won't do so without regard to if it's the right shot (looking at you Lamb).


Here comes McRoberts, the throw to Walker, it's in the aaaaaiiiiirrrr, YESSSSS! Bobcats win it! My my my, Kemba Walker. Steve Martin - Toronto 12/18/2013
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