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Hornets at Heat - The Big Payback

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#61 buckets Posted 28 January 2018 - 08:15 AM

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This is actually very helpful to see.  I tend to think that Frank looks like he's in the right spots defensively.  The previous Heat meltdown, I am pretty sure FK was screened by his own player on both KO 3s to open the 4th.  I didn't think then it was Frank (though I defer to others if history proves that an incorrect memory) but since there's a narrative that he's not good on defense, that's the majority of the coach-in-waiting-callers to local AM radio.  Somehow, over time, that becomes truth and that then becomes a hurdle to overcome.  There's a lot to be said about playing your lane well and having to overcome bad play to do so. Like you said, that doesn't make him a plus defender, but it doesn't make him the minus defender he's labelled. 

 

To me, there are big advantages to playing FK down the stretch (pretty much the whole 4th) at the 5, with alternating MKG and Marvin at the 4 is what I would so love to see this team run.  It alleviates that concern above of having 4 on 3 defensive covers on any pressure inbound for us and it stretches the floor offensively.  Additionally, I have 100% confidence on Frank putting the ball on the floor on a full sprint if our game depends on it.  I know Dwight loves to do this himself but he's not fool enough to try that with game on the line and 30 seconds to go.  Not saying you need your PF/C to do this, just painting the remarkably stark delta between those guys and who you'd want on the court with 5 mins left in the 4th up or down a possession.  And unlike Nic, Frank doesn't seem to run from big moments, he'll put up the kill shot but won't do so without regard to if it's the right shot (looking at you Lamb).

 

 

Yeah I gave up bothering to point out the inconsistencies when for whatever reason Kaminsky's solid defense as a C in late January through early March somehow retroactively morphed into a sieve by July. For real, that was one of the most brutal scheduling stretches in CHA history yet the Hornets were fine defensively and Frank was better there than at PF against benches.

 

Which again, doesn't make him a plus defender but the inconsistencies in the narrative should at least raise questions. It also says a lot about Lin, Marco, Sessions, Monk, Roberts, indirectly Marvin, and our relative lack of knowledge about defense compared to offense.

 

And IMO front court defense is overrated while backcourt defense is one of basketball's most underrated skills (as is the offense-defense dependency).

 

Plus defensively with Lin and length of Lamb, Batum

Minus defensively with Sessions and Marco et al...

Fine defender in connected lineups as a starting C

Terrible with Monk and Lamb

Plus defensively with MCW (go figure)

Neutral or better than Marvin in like-lineups, although confounding variables certainly apply.


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#62 WIAN Posted 28 January 2018 - 12:31 PM

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But isn't that what you asked for, tracking data for DFG% differential? Come clean --- you'd be like "haha see" if the tracking data said otherwise. 

 

And excuse for what, specifically, other than not being gifted a desirable height-to-length ratio? Or for that matter, frequently playing in inexperienced 5-man bench groups rather than cocooned in lineups with MKG and Howard or previously with Cody and MKG.

 

Hornets *bench since December 17 (Monk started getting DNP's) is 3.1 points better defensively than the $84M starting group. During the same period the bench group is +7.1 overall compared to the starters who are +3.2. For comparison sake the Spurs #1 rated bench is +6.0 since 12/17.

 

With Howard + MKG (season)

Marvin = 802 minutes (66.7%)

Frank = 78 minutes (7.9%)

 

Without Howard + MKG

Marvin= 76 minutes (6.1%)

Frank= 591 minutes (59.8%)

 

*combinations of MCW, Lamb, Treveon, Frank, JOB, Nic, Kemba

 

Some discussions you really don't need the numbers for validation but I would say 2%(+/-) one way or the other confirms Frank has little to no affect on the defender. But we can play the numbers game with this stat as well. Any reason you chose to use the inside 6FT criteria (lowest FQ)? His highest frequency is >15FT where that stat is +5.5% and overall he is at +3%. Add to the fact I remember specifically two games earlier this year where the Spurs and Raptors attacked him to no end down the stretch to put games away. I wouldn't put this as top 3 Hornets problem this is more a Cliff issue if you ask me because he rarely removes Frank in those situations so I would suspect this is a "late game" problem to file away for Cliff.


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#63 QC Thundercats Posted 28 January 2018 - 12:56 PM

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Missed this game because I went to a birthday dinner.  But seems I've seen this movie already.  It's interesting to see how everyone seems to be coming to the consensus here and other places that coaching may be the biggest issue.

 

I always likened Cliff to Ron Rivera, because they both seemed like hard working, basketball/football lifers who are legitimately good people.  Both had game management issues early on, but at least Ron took risks, and he finally, FINALLY changed offensive coordinators.  I don't know if there is an analogous move in basketball short of changing the head man.  And if you subscribe to Larry Bird's philsophy, an average coach's voice grows stale after 3 years or so.  Not that I necessarily agree, but a new perspective may be merited in Hornetland.

 

He may have been the best overall coach we've ever had, but that shouldn't keep MJ from considering new candidates this offseason.  No point in changing now.  I wonder if we fans gave Cliff a longer leash before because he consistently had top 10 defenses, and that we figured he'd learn better game management over the years.  But both of these things are deep in the red now, and a seeming stubborness to try anything new.  Reminds me of my high school coach who insisted that his offense would work if we kept trying it, even though all the conference teams knew our plays from decades of no changes.  But what could any of players do other than run his limited flex offense to death with no variations on the way to another L.

 

I feel Silas may have been trying to run things the same way as Cliff because he was probably expected back, and didn't want to risk changing philosophies twice in a year when he eventually did.  I don't know if Silas would be the answer either, since maybe we don't know exactly his philosophy.  But it's be insane to run back the same system, same philosophy after two severely underwhelming, underachieving years, with no indications of growth potential.


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#64 buckets Posted 28 January 2018 - 01:37 PM

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Some discussions you really don't need the numbers for validation but I would say 2%(+/-) one way or the other confirms Frank has little to no affect on the defender. But we can play the numbers game with this stat as well. Any reason you chose to use the inside 6FT criteria (lowest FQ)? His highest frequency is >15FT where that stat is +5.5% and overall he is at +3%. Add to the fact I remember specifically two games earlier this year where the Spurs and Raptors attacked him to no end down the stretch to put games away. I wouldn't put this as top 3 Hornets problem this is more a Cliff issue if you ask me because he rarely removes Frank in those situations so I would suspect this is a "late game" problem to file away for Cliff.

 

Not sure what your're driving at here. I linked the actual numbers including the > 15ft shots. A defenses' ability to impact offensive FG% switches rapidly from skill to randomness outside of 5ft, then almost entirely to volume once beyond the 3P line. Which makes it accurate to say Frank has almost "no affect" on makes or misses but that statement applies to the majority of NBA players and shots.

 

We're both highlighting the same phenomena outside of the Restricted Area, it's just 1 is being ascribed to the individual on-ball defender while the other acknowledges the randomness of shots and the nuances of team defense to dictate volume in certain areas of the court. If anything, the defense wins in the long-run if the opponent attempts to exploit a matchup with mid-range jumpers. The stat to look at for Frank, however, is defensive 3PAr in certain lineup combinations.

 

One thing I've never looked at too closely but believe has significant merit.....there's a combination effect for multi-position and multi-spot defensive versatility. Rudy Gobert is a spectacular interior defender but all things being equal, is his defensive value universally higher than Draymond Green's? Or for that matter, is Marcus Smart or prime Paul Millsap the superior defender to Myles Turner in 2020? I truly don't know but suspect rim protection in a vacuum is increasingly less important if that player cannot reasonably switch onto wings.

 

Anyways generalizing defensive goals here....

 

Transition = reduction of volume and efficiency, specifically efficiency. 

 

Inside 5 ft = reducing volume and FG% (defenses can legitimately impact %, FTAr, volume)

 

Between non-RA & 3P line = maximizing volume, live with the randomness.

 

3P line: goal is reducing overall volume and uncontested corner 3's. Results are generally random. Significant differentials can last entire seasons (see Kawhi Leonard's crazy 3P% bad luck)


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#65 WIAN Posted 28 January 2018 - 01:56 PM

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It's too many variables involved in this stat hence I'm not a fan of the def fg%. But this is an interesting tidbit to follow late in games as we have seen teams attack Frank.

Which points to Adams comment about putting players in position to fail. The horrendous close game record did not arrive by accident and I think we can all agree on that point.
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#66 buckets Posted 28 January 2018 - 02:06 PM

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It's too many variables involved in this stat hence I'm not a fan of the def fg%. But this is an interesting tidbit to follow late in games as we have seen teams attack Frank.

Which points to Adams comment about putting players in position to fail. The horrendous close game record did not arrive by accident and I think we can all agree on that point.

 

I'll post further a couple tidbits in the GM thread. Anyways, an interesting discussion.


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