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#1 Adam42R Posted 12 July 2019 - 10:13 PM

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Doing my ever best version of trying to peer through the GWMVP lens, this thread is an attempt to take a most non-critical view of events that have transpired and the most optimistic view of things going forward. So with that, I'll proceed.
 
Why the hell did we let Kemba go for free, and take no advantage of the tradeability of Lamb or Frank before the deadline seems to be the most pressing question.  It's a perfectly logical question and in 2 dimensions, it's very hard to rationalize it in any way. But is it totally inexplicable?  Not entirely.  The verbal push all along was that we'd do everything we could to retain Kemba. A second and very interesting comment from the much panned Mitch conference call (MPMCC) that Jordan would have gone into the tax had we made the playoffs (Reference 1). And a third concept that Mitch intro'd prior to or around the draft that we had options prior but none that wouldn't impact our future flexibility (or something akin to that). If we take points 1 and 2 at face value and I don't see why we shouldn't, then trading Lamb or Frank would not be doing everything we can to retain Kemba. And point 3 would likely explain (not justify, just explain) why they were not willing to trade other assets and spend down future assets to acquire a playmaker.
 
That puts us post-trade deadline, still holding our no-longer-valued trade assets and also explaining why we would not offer Frank his exit card. At this point, one can only assume Jordan had a number of the back of the napkin that Mitch could not exceed. That did not allow for retaining Frank and Lamb regardless and if Kemba wasn't going to take the napkin offer, they were going to reset.  Now would all of this potentially be different had we won two more games in the regular season?  They say so, and if I squint hard enough I can see through that lens.
 
Where the "ok, we're gonna lose him so find something" starts to come into view might be if they looked at what I did with that Dunlap year.  They know better than me that the 2013 team was actually slightly better than their results.  And it's easy, easy to argue that nearly any 2019 team we roll out is anywhere from decently to substantially better than the 2013 team. If (IF) I am Jordan and I am getting beyond frustrated that a $120m team cannot win .500, why not reset? The masses will argue that we should have reset yes, but we should have with at least a low FRP, high FRP and SRP for our troubles (e.g. trades at the deadline).  But go back to that consideration of points 1, 2 and 3.  Let's move on. 
 
SO why Terry?  Well if we're going to have any chance of maximizing anything this year, which I believe is their goal because they won't try lay down for a top pick before the season starts (see 2012 for why that doesn't guarantee shit), they needed not only a hungry competitor that will be an equivalent to a year 2.5 Kemba, they needed to actually over pay someone.  It goes back to that whole thing about Jordan being cheap. Anyone recall when we last lost that moniker?  It was signing Gordon Hayward to a max deal that Utah eventually matched.  I don't really recall the din of "Mike's cheap" after that.  I wonder if this is a similar approach. Not just pay Terry, but give him a fat-enough paycheck (along with the still healthy salaries that will carry beyond next year of Cody and Nic) so that noone can completely argue the franchise is cheap.  
 
So we have the chance that we pull a moderately entertaining season.  I'd say we are likely to win something around 28 games on the high side but things could break our way and push that a tick higher. I doubt folks will be too concerned about resting their A players against us and that could have us batting over our average. And if we can do that, to GW's point, did we lose "that" much ground?
 
So Jordan gets a team fighting for wins.  He also gets a good shakedown of our youth brigade while we ride out our graduating seniors.  We could very well end up ok after next year.  Financially, provided Monk stays and we retain him, and give Bacon something akin to a Lamb'ish contract, we're $30m under the cap, 8 players under contract and they'll all "core" guys, and multiple picks (that 8 grows to 11 if we sign our SRPs incl. Arnie). 2020 we'll have FRP, Cavs pick from SGA, one of the Nets/Knicks pick that doesn't convey to the Celts (and some weird shit that might give us a weak Celts pick?).  If this whole thing is right, we'll be doing our everything to see Jalen and Cody play this year in both GSO and here and I'm guessing Arnie too. And of-course we'll see a lot of PJ. Beyond that, IF the bill rate we gave Terry works to show we're not as cheap as perceived, we can try go after a moderate to better FA akin to the Gordon Hayward -> Al Jefferson work.  If that works out, and JB picks up ground, I can see a way that this doesn't end up in post-apocalyptic charred Earth. 
 
At least this is my best attempt at seeing this in a favorable light. Not sure I can live in this space, feels sort of like I am spitting on my seats before sitting in them. But it's a try.

Reference 1
 
FWIW, this was inspired by a tweet I saw by Aldridge from the Athletic claiming that Mitch might be the last honest dealer in the NBA regarding moratorium.  I didn't read the article (not a subscriber) and cannot find the tweet now so it might largely be based on a misunderstanding. Makes one think, if the dude is genuinely an honest guy, then he's not been lying and won't want to lie. Won't mean that he won't use language in a hyper-precise way to say what he needs to so as to both be honest and not tell what he wants to hold close to the vest.  But it did make me ponder a lot of that first segment of why we never dealt any of these guys and lost them for nothing.  Just stabbing at attempts of positivity ;)

Here comes McRoberts, the throw to Walker, it's in the aaaaaiiiiirrrr, YESSSSS! Bobcats win it! My my my, Kemba Walker. Steve Martin - Toronto 12/18/2013
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#2 Chef Posted 12 July 2019 - 10:26 PM

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I will play along. To do that I will roll with everything you put forward. The big hitch to the get up is the low ball over to kemba. Why not attempt to keep him with a proper offer, and get below tax by moving any of Cody, mkg, Marv for space and a 2nd?

Keep kemba or trade him Blake Griffin style. It just doesn't make any sense to give away a $5 dollar bill then pay $3.50 for a non unique $2 bill

Holding out hope that Mike sells.

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#3 Adam42R Posted 12 July 2019 - 10:37 PM

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I will play along. To do that I will roll with everything you put forward. The big hitch to the get up is the low ball over to kemba. Why not attempt to keep him with a proper offer, and get below tax by moving any of Cody, mkg, Marv for space and a 2nd?

Keep kemba or trade him Blake Griffin style. It just doesn't make any sense to give away a $5 dollar bill then pay $3.50 for a non unique $2 bill

 

You mean why not more than $160m?  I am going to just assume MJ presented Mitch with a "with" post-season offer cap that went into the tax and a "without."  On the latter, I'll make the further assumption that limits the actual dollar amount of the offer, not the "don't go into the tax" part.  So it wouldn't matter what they traded away, there were fixed dollar amounts that were on the table for Kemba himself.

 

Separate Terry from the equation though.  I'd view that as two discrete transactions where Terry is that 2.5 year Kemba AND a statement to future FAs that we will pay well.

 

Again, I don't necessarily advocate team financial management in this way, just trying to paint a possible picture.


Here comes McRoberts, the throw to Walker, it's in the aaaaaiiiiirrrr, YESSSSS! Bobcats win it! My my my, Kemba Walker. Steve Martin - Toronto 12/18/2013
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#4 Chef Posted 12 July 2019 - 10:48 PM

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You mean why not more than $160m? I am going to just assume MJ presented Mitch with a "with" post-season offer cap that went into the tax and a "without." On the latter, I'll make the further assumption that limits the actual dollar amount of the offer, not the "don't go into the tax" part. So it wouldn't matter what they traded away, there were fixed dollar amounts that were on the table for Kemba himself.

Separate Terry from the equation though. I'd view that as two discrete transactions where Terry is that 2.5 year Kemba AND a statement to future FAs that we will pay well.

Again, I don't necessarily advocate team financial management in this way, just trying to paint a possible picture.


Any prudent negotiator would know that 160 mil offer when a (preseason) 190 max is available AND the other side took a discount the contract before is not going to fly. If that is the case, you have to trade him. Just seems like this exercise leads to the same painted in corner. Right?

Holding out hope that Mike sells.

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#5 dav7z Posted 12 July 2019 - 10:52 PM

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I would love to see us sign  Holliday  to pair next to  Terry  . Two bulldogs  playing defense in the back court . Put Monk in the mix playing the better shooting guard game two game . Start Bacon at the three and Bridges at the four and Cody at the five. Ball hawk the whole game . Sub Graham  ,Monk , Batum ,MKG, Billy. with the 2nd bunch pressing and trapping all so. And run run run. playing each group about 24 mins each. .At least we would be fun to watch. 


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#6 Icky Thump Posted 12 July 2019 - 10:57 PM

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Anyone think money isn't the issue between Kemba and the team? Like he said way back "They know what they need to do"... well we didn't get ANYTHING done. Is it possible we just let Kemba walk after not being able to do anything to get the players around Kemba like he wanted? At that point I'm not sure upping the money does much for him or the team (locking us further into tight money situation). It's almost as if we offered a basic lower amount knowing he wasn't going to stay or something.

 

 

edit: sorry to interrupt the attempted positive viewpoint


T73It2l.gifTime to nut up or shut up!

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#7 Adam42R Posted 12 July 2019 - 11:16 PM

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Any prudent negotiator would know that 160 mil offer when a (preseason) 190 max is available AND the other side took a discount the contract before is not going to fly. If that is the case, you have to trade him. Just seems like this exercise leads to the same painted in corner. Right?

 

I go back to the same thought, that there were two Kemba numbers, one if we made the post season, one if we didn't.  All our notions of what we could clear or how much we could go in that case are irrelevant.  And yes, painted corner for sure but back to that why the hell para, if the whole notion was to do a suicide drive for the playoffs (without making one iota of a forward looking sacrifice via picks) and not make any other arrangements as a hedge, then maybe it was just internal fanboy optimism that prevented them from seeing an alternate universe but were unwilling to change the parameters. And while I fault them for a lot, sticking to a budget (when you aren't winning) isn't exactly indefensible ground.

 

Anyone think money isn't the issue between Kemba and the team? Like he said way back "They know what they need to do"... well we didn't get ANYTHING done. Is it possible we just let Kemba walk after not being able to do anything to get the players around Kemba like he wanted? At that point I'm not sure upping the money does much for him or the team (locking us further into tight money situation). It's almost as if we offered a basic lower amount knowing he wasn't going to stay or something.

 

 

edit: sorry to interrupt the attempted positive viewpoint

 

I don't know this challenges what I was going for in a negative sense.  My "positive" was around the notions that maybe they did have a strategy (albeit one most of us cannot wrap our minds around), and maybe this was a fixed budget decision (again, at least defensible), and that maybe there weren't any outright lies, just what they were doing w/ what they were saying didn't measure up to how we (or probably anyone outside of that inner circle) viewed it.  To say in another way, the "attempted positive viewpoint" isn't around the state of the team or to what Doug is talking about, what would be fun to watch, but how much they might not have been disingenuous or dishonest or even completely incompetent. 


Here comes McRoberts, the throw to Walker, it's in the aaaaaiiiiirrrr, YESSSSS! Bobcats win it! My my my, Kemba Walker. Steve Martin - Toronto 12/18/2013
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#8 nowhere fast Posted 12 July 2019 - 11:35 PM

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Seems like the strategy's more of the same.  Hope Rozier puts up Kemba's numbers and one of the youngsters puts up Jeremy's.  Wouldn't be surprised if they went after Capela or Steven Adams to send Cody to the bench like they tried every year under Cho.  Feels like old times.

To be fair, even if they somehow bagged a Bradley Beal to be the new centerpiece it would still come off as more of the same with so much uncertainty elsewhere.  The thing about "quick" rebuilds like Indiana's that keeps their fanbase engaged is seeing legit cause for optimism from youngsters like Turner and Sabonis.  Assuming the FO feels the same about Miles and company seems like the only way this looks rational.


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#9 buckets Posted 12 July 2019 - 11:57 PM

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Adam while I appreciate the gymnastics Hornets could’ve paid Kemba $180m and still skirted the tax by shedding a small bit of salary during the season.

Also, the PO rationale for becoming taxpayers is unnecessarily rudimentary. Why does the timing of Blake Griffin’s injury determine the future of the Charlotte Hornets? Not to mention Im pretty sure the org tried tanking at the end.

Where it does wash is Kemba @ 2800 minutes and 32% usage simply wasn’t happening again but that was knowable prior to the trade deadline because Kemba on 2800/32 isn’t a sustainable plan.
#Chodidthemath
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#10 Adam42R Posted 13 July 2019 - 12:04 AM

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Buckets, don't mistake this for my arguing the virtue. It's like when your child does something bad but you later find out it was for some logically tortured incorrect reasoning but with good intent, you trend to view it differently. Read this in that light.

But 180m, 160m is our argument. If they had a fixed number in ink, then none of that matters. Again, don't view that as approval of, just possible explanation of.

I do think however the low offer is some capitulation that his minutes and usage were unsustainable from their viewpoint. Management of that realization is where we're at.
Here comes McRoberts, the throw to Walker, it's in the aaaaaiiiiirrrr, YESSSSS! Bobcats win it! My my my, Kemba Walker. Steve Martin - Toronto 12/18/2013
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#11 Chef Posted 13 July 2019 - 06:25 AM

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I go back to the same thought, that there were two Kemba numbers, one if we made the post season, one if we didn't. All our notions of what we could clear or how much we could go in that case are irrelevant. And yes, painted corner for sure but back to that why the hell para, if the whole notion was to do a suicide drive for the playoffs (without making one iota of a forward looking sacrifice via picks) and not make any other arrangements as a hedge, then maybe it was just internal fanboy optimism that prevented them from seeing an alternate universe but were unwilling to change the parameters. And while I fault them for a lot, sticking to a budget (when you aren't winning) isn't exactly indefensible ground.


I don't know this challenges what I was going for in a negative sense. My "positive" was around the notions that maybe they did have a strategy (albeit one most of us cannot wrap our minds around), and maybe this was a fixed budget decision (again, at least defensible), and that maybe there weren't any outright lies, just what they were doing w/ what they were saying didn't measure up to how we (or probably anyone outside of that inner circle) viewed it. To say in another way, the "attempted positive viewpoint" isn't around the state of the team or to what Doug is talking about, what would be fun to watch, but how much they might not have been disingenuous or dishonest or even completely incompetent.


Again, I will assume you are correct. Then why not tell kemba in the meeting, look we are actually going to be going the other way, so don't expect much of a roster change until the summer nic and Cody come off the books. Here is 5/180 so that it looks like we aren't completely lowballing our homegrown star and you can easily say, "I need more help".

Have Mitch go out and give the whole, "we tried but the asking price was way to much to move the contracts and have anything left over. We never wanted to move kemba because he is the heart and soul of the team and city and we don't view him as a chess piece but as a member of our family. Sometimes family members just need to move away for the sake of their own lives..."

The optics of what happened with kemba is terrible anyway you slice it.

Holding out hope that Mike sells.

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#12 powellrmp Posted 13 July 2019 - 08:02 AM

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No
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#13 Adam42R Posted 13 July 2019 - 08:12 AM

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I can only assume that despite our amazement, they had no strategic concerns around optics. Or maybe more logically, Mike had a bottom line financial concern. Mitch's job included trying spin that which is the furthest thing from his strong suit.

I can't argue it's not terrible optics.
Here comes McRoberts, the throw to Walker, it's in the aaaaaiiiiirrrr, YESSSSS! Bobcats win it! My my my, Kemba Walker. Steve Martin - Toronto 12/18/2013
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